2007 Cleveland Indians Preview! (Part 2)

Last year's Indians team was unique in that it outscored its opponents by 88 runs over the course of the season yet failed to win even half of its games. Run differential usually correlates well to winning percentage; the Indians were an anomaly, and in fact one Wall Street Journal article from last summer and at least one ESPN.com journalist called the 2006 Indians "the most unlucky team in baseball." Although it is probably true that the Tribe was better than its record, further statistical digging shows that the team had major flaws. Its overall pitching ranked 7th in the AL in runs allowed, definitely mediocre but still not crippling for a team with such a powerful offense. However, the team ranked second to last in the league in strikeouts and dead last in the league in saves. The team's bullpen was atrocious, and the lack of power arms particularly held the team back. Situations late in games where the team couldn't afford to give up a sacrifice fly and desperately needed a strikeout typically resulted in losses for the Indians, as we offered the strikeout-averse Bob Wickman where most contending teams would bring in a flamethrower from the pen. General Manager Mark Shapiro's biggest efforts to improve the club this off-season focused on rebuilding the bullpen, and while he did not necessarily focus on strikeout pitchers his acquisitions will decide those crucial late game situations that are the difference between champions and chumps. Here is a look at the Tribe's pitching staff:

Rotation:

THE ACE- C.C. Sabathia
Sabathia's inconsistencies continue to frustrate Indians fans and front office alike. His conditioning has always been poor, and as a result he has missed the beginning of the last two seasons with injuries. When he is on his game his combination of stuff and command is as good as any in baseball; see the months of May and August last year, where his ERAs were a microscopic 1.20 and 1.88 respectively. When the big left-hander trusts his power arm and darting slider and doesn't overthrow, focusing on the pinpoint control that he is often capable of, he is the pitcher that promising Royals 3rd baseman Mark Teahen recently called "the toughest pitcher in the American League." But he still has months like last June, when his ERA was a pathetic 7.57. His production may never fully match his potential, but what the frustrated fans are missing is the big picture; Sabathia's ERA of 3.22 still ranked 3rd in the American League. Far from perfect, but still a better than average #1 starter.

Mr. Consistency- Jake Westbrook
Westbrook never gets the credit he deserves. A true workhorse, he has pitched over 200 innings in each of the last three seasons and has won 14, 15, and 15 games. His best statistical season was two years ago, when he posted an ERA of 3.38, but he has always been steady and reliable. A classic sinker-ball pitcher, Westbrook may have a big year as the infield defense has been significantly improved with the additions of Josh Barfield and Andy Marte and more importantly the departures of Ronnie Belliard and Aaron Boone.

The Savvy Veteran- Paul Byrd
The right-handed Byrd has some of the worst stuff on the team, with a fastball lucky to reach the mid-80s and a smattering of unremarkable breaking and offspeed pitching. Yet the crafty Byrd has an uncanny feel for pitching and is a master of the mental aspects of the game. When he has control of his breaking pitches they move enough to confuse opposing hitters and generate weak outs. Another innings eater who will give solid production.

Master of Deception- Cliff Lee
The left-handed Lee had a down year last year; his 4.40 ERA was far above that of his previous season. There is a sense that opposing hitters had adjusted to his style; his stuff is not dominating, and he counts on deceiving hitters through his delivery and changing speeds to flummox batters. At 28 years old his upside is probably limited, although you could do a lot worse for a #4 starter.

The Phenom- Jeremy Sowers
The left-handed Sowers was drafted 6th in the 2005 draft, considered the second-best college pitcher in that draft behind Old Dominion's dazzling Justin Verlander. Although Verlander, now with the Tigers, had a sensational rookie season last year, Sowers was no slouch himself. Called up in mid-season, the former Vanderbilt star had a 3.57 ERA in almost 90 big-league innings before being shut down for the season. Another starter without dominant stuff, he compensates with brilliant control and makeup for a young pitcher. He has been compared to a young Tom Glavine, and while such comparisons are premature he is a fine 5th starter at this point in his career.

BULLPEN

There are a number of pitchers trying out for spots in a crowded Indians bullpen, but here is how I expect it to shake out assuming the Tribe keeps 11 pitchers.

Rafael Betancourt- Played a big role in the bullpen last year, not ideally suited for the set-up role and would be a good middle reliever. Has started in the minors before and could be stretched out to serve as the long man.

Jason Davis- Another candidate for the long reliever role, he is a former starter for the Indians and even won 10 games one year. Since he was converted to the bullpen last year he has improved his control while maintaining his velocity. He posted a 3.74 ERA overall but improved over the course of the season, posting monthly ERAs of 3.86, 2.57, and 0.82 over July, August, and September. Very high upside.

Aaron Fultz- The situational lefty that the Indians lacked last year, the free agent pickup only had a 4.54 ERA last year but boasted a strong K/IP rate (62/71.1). Although he was better against left-handed hitters than righties last year, they still batted .277 off of him, which is less than ideal for a lefty specialist. However the Indians hope he returns to his form of 2005, when Fultz was dominant in posting a 2.24 ERA and lefties hit .220 off of him. The front office will be happy if he settles in somewhere in between those extremes this year.

Roberto Hernandez- A cagey veteran, the 42-year old Hernandez had an ERA of 3.11 and was indispensable for the Mets as they dominated the National League during the regular season. Hernandez only gave up 5 home runs all season, and although Shea Stadium is a much better pitcher's park than Jacobs Field his tendency to keep balls in the yard will play well. Not a big strikeout guy, Hernandez is expected to be the Tribe's bridge to the set-up guy.

Joe Borowski- Brought in to close, Borowski will probably begin the season in the set-up role behind Keith Foulke, although if and when Foulke is injured Borowski is a capable fill-in. The pitcher had a 3.75 ERA with 37 saves for the Marlins with a high K/IP rate (64/69.2). Oddly enough, left-handed hitters hit only .167 against the right-handed Borowski, so manager Eric Wedge will be able to use him for situational matchups as well. Borowski is probably not a championship-caliber closer, but if he has experience in big situations and should be able to hold leads through the late innings.

Keith Foulke- Probably will be the closer out of spring training, and barring injury should stay there through the season. Foulke was a dominant closer earlier in his career, having 8 straight seasons with ERAs below 3 at one point, but the last two seasons have been disasters. Injuries to his knee and elbow caused his mechanics to suffer and Foulke lost his control. However, Foulke was finally healthy in September of 2006 and rolled off 11 straight appearances without yielding a run. If we see that Keith Foulke this season the Indians will have the legitimate hammer at the end of the bullpen that the team hasn't seen since the great Steve Karsay/Paul Shuey combination of early 2001.

Overall the pitching staff looks solid on paper. The group is veteran-laden and has a number of reliable innings-eaters in the rotation with proven bullpen arms to hold leads. Moreover the 'pen has versatility and depth; Borowski, Betancourt, and Davis have all closed before in case Foulke gets injured. The only thing missing is a level of dominance in the front of the rotation and back of the bullpen. Sabathia has the ability to be that dominant ace, but he has to make it happen this year. Foulke has been that dominant closer in the past, but his body may hold him back this year. Question marks abound, as always, but the talent is there this year for the Indians to make a run. If a few things break right, the Tribe could be looking at a pennant run this year.

2007 Cleveland Indians Preview! (Part 1)

There are still more than three weeks until pitchers and catchers report to Winter Haven, Florida for the start of Spring Training, but I can't wait- I've got Tribe Fever. Without further ado here is my unapologetically optimistic breakdown of this year's 2007 Cleveland Indians!

Catcher- Victor Martinez appears to be entrenched at the catcher's position, despite his well-documented struggles defensively and the presence of up-and-coming backup Kelly Shoppach. Although V-Mart got a few opportunities at first base last season, the presence of David Dellucci and Trot Nixon will force Casey Blake to get more at-bats at first, likely forcing Martinez behind the plate. The Indians are hoping that continued work with ex-catchers and current coaches Eric Wedge and Joel Skinner will improve Martinez's footwork and throwing accuracy. With that said, there are few catchers as offensively gifted as V-Mart, who hit a robust .316 with 16 home runs and 93 RBI, with an on-base percentage of .391. His power numbers were actually slightly down last season, the first since 2003 that he did not hit 20 home runs, but his double rate still stayed consistent. Only 28, there is no reason Martinez should not remain one of the best offensive catchers in baseball.

1st base- Young first basemen Ryan Garko impressed last season in his first extended stint in the majors, but he will likely be platooning this year with "supersub" Casey Blake. The right-handed Garko hit .333 against lefties last year vs. .281 against righties, while Blake hit .286 against righties and .272 against lefties. Thus Blake will play first against right-handed pitchers while Garko will take over against lefties, although Blake may still get at-bats in the outfield against left-handers. This platoon should generate a high overall average and on-base percentage, although Blake has only average power and Garko has not been able to translate his immense strength into home runs as of yet. This should still be a position of strength.

2nd base- A relative weakness for the Indians, Josh Barfield had a strong rookie season in the National League but now has to adjust a whole new league this year. A good fielder with a quick bat, Barfield has great upside but has to make a quick transition or he will start very slowly. If he can learn the pitchers and the league, he has a chance to be a very solid hitter at the bottom of the lineup.

Shortstop- Probably the biggest X-Factor for the Indians roster, the Tribe need to see the Jhonny Peralta of 2005 and not of last season. Consider that at age 22 and in his first full season the phenom hit .292 with 24 home runs and 78 RBI, solidifying the middle of the lineup. Last year Peralta hit the dreaded "sophomore slump," and posted a measly .257 average with 13 homers and 68 RBI, along with a paltry .323 on-base percentage that crippled the lineup. If Peralta can return to form he can make an already dangerous lineup extraordinary.

Third base- The hot corner will belong exclusively to one-time uberprospect Andy Marte, who struggled in his rookie season last year. He hit only .226 with 5 home runs last year, although his plate discipline and defense improved dramatically over the course of the season. Blessed with enormous physical tools, Marte needs to channel some of that potential into production this season and become at least a serviceable major league hitter.

Outfield- After General Manager Mark Shapiro re-signed Jason Michaels and signed outfielders Trot Nixon and David Dellucci, the outfield could shape up in any number of ways. The only constant is star Center Fielder Grady Sizemore, a player White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen called "the best in the American League," and the de facto leader of the outfield. After a stellar rookie year, Sizemore's 2006 campaign was off-the charts; hitting at the top of the lineup, he hit .290 with 28 home runs and 76 RBI, with a .375 on-base percentage. He added 53 doubles and 11 triples, which means he had a total of NINETY-TWO extra-base hits, by far leading the league. He also was easily the Indians best defensive player, contributing a number of eye-popping "web gems" that saved games. Oh yeah, he is still 24 years old.

Left Field should be a platoon of the right-handed Jason Michaels and the left-handed David Dellucci. Michaels struggled as a regular last season, but as a platoon player he could be a valuable contributor as he was for the Phillies in 2005. Dellucci has experience and has been extremely productive in part-time roles before, most recently last year for the Texas Rangers.
Right Field will be another platoon between newly acquired Trot Nixon and Casey Blake. The well-respected Nixon will face right-handers, off of whom he hit .288 last season, and Blake will move from first to right to face left-handers.

The Indians outfield is very solid although it still lacks power outside of Sizemore, although Nixon and Dellucci should improve that to an extent. But that power outage is made up for by one of the most dangerous hitters in the American League...

Designated Hitter: Travis Hafner. Hafner, affectionately known as "Pronk" in the Cleveland area, has become something of a cult hero. His Pronk-bars are sold in area candy shops and the Indians named the right-field mezzanine at Jacobs Field "Pronkville" in his honor. But Pronk (the origin of the name is credited to former Indians utility-man Bill Selby, who observed that Hafner was 'half-project, half donkey,' and coined the nickname 'Pronk') when healthy is undoubtedly one of the most feared hitters in baseball. Limited to DH because of an arthiritic elbow, Hafner last year hit .308 with 42 home runs and 117 RBI in only 130 games. His on-base percentage was an absurd .439, and his OPS (on-base + slugging percentage) was second in all of baseball, behind only the incomparable Albert Pujols of the Cardinals. With all due respect to the incredibly clutch David Ortiz of the Red Sox, Hafner may well be the best hitter in the American League.


In short, the Indians offense is loaded this year. But that was the case last year, when the Tribe was second in the league in runs scored yet still finished below .500. While the offense could be even better this year than last year, the key to every team's success is pitching, which is where the Tribe's biggest strides needed to be made. We will look at that next time...

Torture

I haven't read many books outside of school since I was elementary school, but I got mono over winter break and I decided to spend my team reading Bill Simmons' book "Now I Can Die In Peace." I'm a big fan of Simmons' column on ESPN.com, and I knew going in that I would really like the book. However, the one thing that bothered me was how Boston-centric every article was. You would expect this from a lifelong Boston fan and a self-proclaimed homer, but still I cringed every time he called the Red Sox the "most tortured fan base in sports." Actually I didn't cringe as much as I got really pissed off. You had frickin' Larry Bird, one of the most legendary basketball players of all time, bring you multiple championships through the 80's, not to mention the Patriots winning 3 out of 4 Super Bowls in this decade. Same with these ridiculous Cubs fans around here; you had JORDAN. If you want to talk about a miserable sporting history consider the great city of Cleveland, Ohio which has not seen a championship in ANY sport since 1964. The Indians have been to the World Series twice and choked both times during the 90's, the Browns were victims of "The Drive," "The Fumble," and "Red Right 88" all during the 80's and have never even been to a Super Bowl, let alone won one, and the woeful Cavs have never even advanced to the NBA finals since their inception in 1970. If you're scoring at home thats a total of 123 seasons without a championship, and I challenge ANY city in America to match that. That's not even accounting for the stomach-punch factor. As miserable as the Cubs have been, they have rarely even been close to a championship. Cleveland teams insist on taunting us; we were ONE STRIKE away from a World Series championship in '97, and were minutes from Super Bowl berths in both '87 and '88 before John Elway's Denver Broncos stole them from us. The Cavaliers best team in its history was beaten by Michael Jordan's defining moment, known simply as "The Shot," where he eliminated the Cavs in the series' deciding game with a buzzer-beating jumper over Craig Ehlo. Cleveland fans are eternally teased by their teams as they inch closer and closer to success, only to always be crushed just as they reach the precipice of glory. So make sure you give Cleveland its just due when you consider the most unfortunate, unlucky, mistreated fan bases in the world. We can only hope LeBron can save us.

The Philosophy of Sport

Everyone remembers the first team they fell in love with. I was a devoted fan of the 1998 Tennessee Volunteers the year they won the championship, and moved to Cleveland just in time to catch the powerhouse 1999 Cleveland Indians, but I didn't fall head-over-heels until I met the Indians of 2000. The glorious '99 summer that ended in bitter October had left me fascinated with the game of baseball, and for an entire winter I was a sponge for any rumor or scrap of news I could grasp. I was saturated with sports talk from local radio, stayed up deep into the dark night dissecting every potential trade or move, and my dreams were filled with longing for those magical nights at Jacobs Field. When the equipment trucks drove to Florida for Spring Training in February I rejoiced, and the phrase "pitchers and catchers report" gave me goosebumps. When April 3, 2000 finally arrived and Opening Day was upon us I thought Christmas had come 8 months early. After the Indians pummeled the Orioles 4-1 I thought nothing could keep us from the World Series. I was young, naive, and full of hope; little did I know that the fateful summer of 2000 would rip out my 12-year old soul and pummel it into pulp.

The Tribe was beset by a rash of injuries, especially to pitchers, and we quickly fell behind in the divisional race. We had won a stunning five straight division titles but this year the rival White Sox had leapt ahead from the start and showed no signs of slowing. Undaunted, I had full faith that we would catch them, if not during the regular season then in the playoffs. I fell asleep listening to Kevin Keane's "sportsline" on the radio and ate, drank, breathed baseball. I was uncommunicative at meals because I was reading the sports page or Sports Illustrated. By July my sports knowledge had far surpassed that of my friends; I knew not only the full Indians roster but those of all six of their farm systems, and had full scouting reports on all of our prospects committed to memory. My first thought waking up was how many games we trailed in the wild-card race. As the leaves began to fall and we came into October my anticipation had reached the boiling point; it was the last game of the season, we trailed by one game, and 11 months of studying, dreams, and prayers all led up to one moment.

After struggling for most of the season we had caught fire over the last two months, making up a massive deficit with a spirited late-season run. I have never seen a team come together and pick each other up with timely clutch plays like the Indians that season. Every night around 10 you could hear an ensemble of car horns on the streets when we clinched another victory. The Indians were the heartbeat of the city; everything else we did revolved around our Tribe. By the end of the year we were the team nobody wanted to play in the postseason, absolutely on fire. On Sunday, October 1st we had one final game to play; we were pitching our worst pitcher against a possible hall-of-famer, David Wells, at Jacobs Field in downtown Cleveland. If we lost this game, our season was over. If we won we could make the playoffs if Anaheim could beat the Athletics later that afternoon. My father had somehow finagled 8 tickets from his company and had brought me with six of my friends. One of the most overused terms to describe a sporting atmosphere is "electric," but as we walked into the stadium that perfect autumn day I felt chills and my hair was on end. From thirty minutes before gametime the park was literally shaking. Each strike we threw brought on an earthquake, and each long fly ball they hit nearly caused our collective cardiac arrest. Over 45,000 people in that stadium and millions around the region lived and died with every pitch. We could not be denied that day and clobbered the Jays 11-4. For hours downtown Cleveland was pandemonium. The streets were a parking lot of euphoric fans dancing on their car roofs, laughing and crying and celebrating what could have been one of the greatest memories, let alone sports moments, of their lives.

We were driving home through that same traffic when we heard the last inning of the Angels-A's game across the country. The Angels were losing 5-0 in the final inning. Mo Vaughn was at the plate for the final at-bat. He popped out. Our season ended. I was twelve. My sports cherry had been popped.

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More than six years later that day is just a footnote in a long history of triumphs and tragedies. But I can never forget the joy we felt that day, and the pain just hours later. I have no idea how a simple game played my selfish millionaires with no loyalty to the fans or to the city can cause such a spectrum of raw emotion in us. Sure its just a game, but its never really been about the game. There is something about sport that has made it such an institution in our society that we open our hearts and our very souls to our teams, that we viciously heckle opponents and deify our heroes, that a simple game with a ball that we all played when we were five years old can transcend sports and become larger than life. The study of that question is the philosophy of sport.