The Great Draft Debate: Potential or Production

Last week we read and discussed Hyland's work, The Philosophy of Sport, which discussed among other things the mindset athletes are in when they play sports. Hyland calls the attitude "responsive openness," which is an idea with two parts. The athlete must have openness, meaning he is acutely aware of his surroundings and the relationship between himself and the other players on the field. This awareness includes the ability to recognize an opportunity as well as an unnecessary risk. The athlete also must be responsive, that is able to act on what he observes in the proper manner.

The greatest athletes have impeccable openness as well as an incredible ability to respond. Both attributes are critical to succeeding in sport. However it seems that modern talent evaluators in sports tend to prize responsiveness, that is an athlete's raw athleticism and ability, over openness. This is exemplified in the perennial debate of potential over production. Consider two extreme types of athletes: The first, named Production, is not the greatest physical specimen, not especially strong or fast, but has consistently demonstrated his ability to make great decisions and play under control by his strong production over four years. The other athlete, Potential, has never produced at a high level but is blessed with jaw-dropping speed, breathtaking leaping ability, and incredible strength. Today's general managers and talent evaluators usually ignore Production and try to sign Potential, because they believe he may one day learn openness and develop into a great player. They argue that athleticism and potential cannot be taught, but knowledge of the game and awareness can. But what they fail to see is that openness, the quality Production excels in, is often an innate ability as well. Every year a GM selects a high-potential yet unproven athlete who can never develop awareness and cannot become a good player. Also every year there are players who are deemed too short, too skinny, or too slow to play at a high level who are bypassed in the draft and become stars.

The NFL draft is this April, and every pro football team will be trying to acquire the best players for their franchise. Far too many will draft busts who lack the "openness" to match their physical abilities. If you want to predict who will have the best drafts, look for the general managers that appreciate awareness as well as potential, for the players they draft are frequently the best players at the next level as well.